Will the Democratic Party win the NY-18 House seat?

The Democratic contract is pricing in a 93% win probability for NY-18, but the extreme 2413.5% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe illiquidity and potential mispricing—with zero 24-hour volume and only $11k open interest, this market lacks meaningful price discovery. The 13-point cliff risk index and 201-day time horizon suggest this is a thin, speculative market where the overwhelming Democratic lean may not reflect genuine uncertainty in what is typically a competitive district. Traders seeking "No" exposure face prohibitive odds, indicating either strong conviction in Democratic retention or simply insufficient market depth to establish a fair counterfactual price.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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