Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?
0x46f19d5bedd6d601d597d308d86814245974014d8a108395a7690d7a099cacdd · closes Jun 30, 2026 · 76 days remaining
Price
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 501.9% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 463.3% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 1 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 2.7% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.06 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 459% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 2.25 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 3.1/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 471% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
379 indicator snapshots · 92 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Crude Oil (CL) futures is equal to or above the listed price between market creation and the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
How to trade
View on polymarket: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0x46f19d5bedd6d601d597d308d86814245974014d8a108395a7690d7a099cacdd yes 100