Will Ed Markey be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts?

0x4808488e54a414ee180be47feebba96166cad42fff4cc5c363733c42b6357d4e · closes Sep 1, 2026 · 139 days remaining

Price

Last

87¢

Bid

85¢

Ask

88¢

Spread

3¢

24h Volume

Open Interest

$9,048.889

Indicator Stack

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	39.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side
IY (No)	1757.1%	Annualized return on the NO side
CRI	7	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution
EE	—	Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes
Overround	0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.03	Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500
CVR	—	Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron
RV	82%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history
VR	1.30	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.6/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window)
Adj IY	1697%	Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS)
Residual VR	—	VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't

7-Day History

107 indicator snapshots · 3 regime snapshots

Regime Snapshot

Score

0.5

Label

neutral

Spread

3¢

Computed

4/14/2026, 11:48:23 PM

About this market

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Massachusetts. If no 2026 Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Massachusetts Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

How to trade

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