Will the Republican Party win the NY-12 House seat?

The Republican contract is pricing at an extreme 6¢ with an extraordinary 2,849.9% implied yield, reflecting NY-12's heavily Democratic lean, though the 1¢ spread and modest $1.663 daily volume suggest thin liquidity that could amplify price swings. The 16 Cliff Risk Index indicates meaningful tail risk, and with 201 days to expiry, significant political developments—redistricting changes, candidate quality shifts, or national Republican momentum—could substantially move this currently illiquid market. The Democratic side's 11.6% yield offers more modest compensation, consistent with the seat's structural Democratic advantage but leaving room for Republican upside if conditions shift materially.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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