What is the current probability for "Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 70¢ (70% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on June 27, 2026. 66 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 237.3% and 1292.0% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 70% probability that Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?. This contract trades at 70¢ on Polymarket, closing June 27, 2026.

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70¢

Bid/Ask 69/71¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $14.817·OI $27,139.571·Closes Jun 27, 2026·66d remaining

0x4ae4a0aecfc6479374c5a9a355f0f0cba2c0680dff010b48a2c8b380423efd05

7-day price45 snapshots · 36 regime

73¢70¢ current

Apr 1068¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 237.3%

IY (No) 1292.0%

Adj IY 646%

CRI 2

Overround -0.0%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	237.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	1292.0%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	646%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 1:54:33 AM

Observability lowEvent type sports

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 1:53:18 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x4ae4a0aecfc6479374c5a9a355f0f0cba2c0680dff010b48a2c8b380423efd05 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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