Will Jay Feely be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?
Prediction markets currently give a 82% probability that Will Jay Feely be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?. This contract trades at 82¢ on Polymarket, closing August 4, 2026. Jay Feely is priced at a substantial 72¢ with an unusually asymmetric risk profile—the "No" side offers 861.7% annualized yield compared to just 130.3% for "Yes," suggesting the market heavily discounts upset scenarios despite the frontrunner pricing.
Analysis
Jay Feely is priced at a substantial 72¢ with an unusually asymmetric risk profile—the "No" side offers 861.7% annualized yield compared to just 130.3% for "Yes," suggesting the market heavily discounts upset scenarios despite the frontrunner pricing. With only $32 in 24-hour volume against $13.4M open interest and 109 days to expiry, this thin liquidity combined with 119% realized volatility and a 3/10 cliff risk index indicates potential for sharp repricing if new information emerges about the AZ-01 primary race. The flat 7-day price action and neutral regime mask underlying uncertainty, as evidenced by the 0.6 info arrivals per hour—suggesting this market may be vulnerable to sudden moves closer to the August 4 primary date.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
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sf trade 0x50cacbab136ddc10400b43c4509e3e3553968027eded0736ab1413caa0e85f6e yes 100