New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?

The market is pricing a Playboi Carti album release before GTA VI at 54%, but the asymmetric implied yields (296% for Yes vs. 408% for No) suggest stronger conviction among No backers despite the near-even odds. With $33.6M in open interest and only $693k in 24-hour volume, liquidity is notably thin relative to the size of positions, creating potential slippage risk for larger trades, while the 105-day timeframe to expiry and 132% realized volatility indicate elevated uncertainty around both release timelines.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Playboi Carti officially releases a new album before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive. Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date. Re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release. The resolution source for the album release will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.

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