Will Adley Rutschman win the 2026 AL Comeback Player of the Year award?

This illiquid market shows extreme pricing distortion with a massive 27¢ spread and zero 24-hour volume, suggesting the 14¢ price may not reflect genuine consensus. The implied yield of 909% on the yes side is extraordinarily high relative to the 24.1% on the no side, indicating severe mispricing likely driven by thin liquidity and the market's 247-day timeframe to expiration. The dramatic 7-day price collapse from 26¢ to 14¢ combined with realized volatility exceeding 5,800% suggests this contract has experienced sharp repricing events, though the near-zero recent trading volume raises questions about whether these moves reflect real conviction or just bid-ask bounce.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Comeback Player of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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