Will the Bitcoin realized volatility index dip to 40 by April 30?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a massive 76¢ spread and wildly divergent implied yields (1949% for Yes vs. 3157% for No), suggesting severe liquidity constraints despite $70k in 24h volume and only $52.74 open interest. The realized volatility of 2,624% dwarfs the vol ratio of 2.21, indicating the market is pricing in far more uncertainty than recent price action warrants, though the 11¢-to-56¢ surge over 7 days suggests recent bullish repricing on Bitcoin volatility expectations. With just 15 days to expiry and an info arrival rate of 3.1 events per hour, this appears to be a thin, illiquid market where the No side offers substantially better risk-adjusted returns despite the neutral regime.

Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Polylayer data point for the BTC-CRVIX 30 Day Index between the creation of this market and 23:59 ET on the date specified in the title has a value equal to or lower than the value specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Polylayer, specifically the BTC-CRVIX 30 Day Index values available at https://polylayer.xyz/crvix/btc, with the chart settings on "7D". A data point is considered finalized once the next data point is published. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the data from the BTC-CRVIX 30 Day Index chart. Values from other exchanges or different indexes will not be considered for the resolution of this market. For reference, the methodology can be found at: https://polylayer.xyz/crvix

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