Will the Republican Party win the IL-17 House seat?

Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will the Republican Party win the IL-17 House seat?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Polymarket, closing November 4, 2026.

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11¢
Bid/Ask 8/14¢·Spread 6¢·Vol $0·OI $871.128·Closes Nov 4, 2026·196d remaining
0x59946d130f7e7093e3463db4221f6e620f670b45ff4acd42def5e29742bee074
7-day price1041 snapshots · 2 regime
47¢11¢ current
Apr 86¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1506.7%
IY (No) 23.0%
Adj IY 1507%
CRI 8
RV 2227%
VR 7.17
▶ Full indicator table (7)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)1506.7%
IY (No)23.0%
Adj IY1507%
CRI8
RV2227%
VR7.17
IAR1.8/h

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
6¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 12:01:43 AM
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 11:53:18 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x59946d130f7e7093e3463db4221f6e620f670b45ff4acd42def5e29742bee074 yes 100

Related concepts

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