What is the current probability for "Fetterman out by December 31, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 23¢ (23% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on December 31, 2026. 245 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Fetterman out by December 31, 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 498.5% and 44.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Fetterman out by December 31, 2026?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Fetterman out by December 31, 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 23% probability that Fetterman out by December 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 23¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.

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23¢

Bid/Ask 7/39¢·Spread 32¢·Vol $0·OI $82.823·Closes Dec 31, 2026·245d remaining

0x25ea45fb5a112391bf64f38056b84394f66cb47a06aa8208339822408fb0a315

7-day price107 snapshots · 9 regime

50¢23¢ current

Apr 1110¢Apr 29

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if John Fetterman ceases to be U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of John Fetterman's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from John Fetterman and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 498.5%

IY (No) 44.5%

Adj IY 249%

CRI 3

▶ Full indicator table (4)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	498.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	44.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	249%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.432

Spread

32¢

Computed

4/29/2026, 8:39:20 PM

Observability mediumEvent type unknown

Indicators computed 4/29/2026, 8:38:54 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x25ea45fb5a112391bf64f38056b84394f66cb47a06aa8208339822408fb0a315 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →