Will Fernando Tatis Jr. win the 2026 National League MVP Award?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Fernando Tatis Jr. win the 2026 National League MVP Award?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Polymarket, closing November 13, 2026. Fernando Tatis Jr.'s MVP odds have collapsed from 7¢ to 4¢ over seven days, reflecting ongoing concerns about his injury history and consistency—the 4,157.9% implied yield on the Yes side signals extreme mispricing or deep skepticism from the market.
Analysis
Fernando Tatis Jr.'s MVP odds have collapsed from 7¢ to 4¢ over seven days, reflecting ongoing concerns about his injury history and consistency—the 4,157.9% implied yield on the Yes side signals extreme mispricing or deep skepticism from the market. With zero 24-hour volume despite $901k open interest and a wide 7¢ spread, liquidity is severely constrained, making this a speculative position rather than an efficiently-priced contract. The 211-day timeline to resolution and neutral regime score suggest the market is waiting for concrete 2026 performance data before reassessing his MVP chances.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 National League Most Valuable Player Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x53742ebde35cbee0ee3ab4241ff24677d4ca8c7ae75089ec455dc0d92d0e3f71 yes 100