Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?

The 23¢ price reflects extremely low conviction in a narrow 5–10% Lula victory margin, with the Yes side offering an outsized 758% implied yield despite 171 days to expiry—suggesting either genuine uncertainty about Brazil's political landscape or potential mispricing given the specific margin band. The 9¢ spread and modest $155k daily volume indicate thin liquidity for a binary outcome on a major geopolitical event, while the 914% realized volatility and 3.31 vol ratio signal this market has experienced substantial price swings, making it susceptible to information shocks as the election approaches. The recent 3¢ price rise over seven days combined with a neutral regime score (0.409) suggests the market is still discovering fair value rather than trending decisively in either direction.

Resolution rules

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade