Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be between 1500.00 and 1549.99 at the end of December 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be between 1500.00 and 1549.99 at the end of December 2026?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. The 11¢ price implies an extremely bullish view on Argentine peso stability, pricing in only an 11% probability that the USD/ARS rate stays within the 1500-1549.99 band by end-2026, despite the asymmetric 1150.9% implied yield on the Yes side suggesting significant underpricing relative to tail risk.
Analysis
The 11¢ price implies an extremely bullish view on Argentine peso stability, pricing in only an 11% probability that the USD/ARS rate stays within the 1500-1549.99 band by end-2026, despite the asymmetric 1150.9% implied yield on the Yes side suggesting significant underpricing relative to tail risk. With zero 24-hour volume against $678,943 open interest and a wide 14¢ spread, this market suffers from severe liquidity constraints that likely explain the extreme yield differential and the recent 3¢ price appreciation over seven days. The 257-day time horizon and neutral regime score offer reasonable runway for resolution, but the high cliff risk index of 8 signals substantial uncertainty around Argentina's currency trajectory given the country's historical volatility and ongoing macroeconomic pressures.
Resolution rules
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA). This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/). If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date. The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
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Trade
sf trade 0x5458c804acbbb43e822a6175c12677c65e8bf586d2c93c6e1df8551ad8e01d87 yes 100