Will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) hit $15,000 (LOW) in December?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $92k open interest, suggesting trapped positions or stale pricing. The 946.7% implied yield on YES is extraordinarily high for a ~2.6 year timeframe, indicating the 13¢ price likely undervalues the probability that NDX touches $15,000 at some point by end-2026, especially given the "any 1-minute candle" resolution criterion which is more permissive than closing above that level. The recent 30% price appreciation (10¢ to 13¢) over 7 days combined with zero volume raises questions about whether this reflects genuine repricing or merely thin-market volatility.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/.

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