Will Dan Wilson win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year?
Prediction markets currently give a 43% probability that Will Dan Wilson win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year?. This contract trades at 43¢ on Polymarket, closing December 19, 2026. This illiquid market shows extreme volatility with a 2215% realized volatility reading and a massive 88¢ bid-ask spread, suggesting minimal trading activity despite $1,145.64 in open interest.
Analysis
This illiquid market shows extreme volatility with a 2215% realized volatility reading and a massive 88¢ bid-ask spread, suggesting minimal trading activity despite $1,145.64 in open interest. The 44¢ price has risen 7 points over seven days, but with zero 24-hour volume and an implied yield of 188% on the yes side, the pricing appears speculative rather than consensus-driven. With 247 days until expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 1, this market lacks sufficient depth to be reliable for serious prediction purposes.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the manager who wins the 2026 American League Manager of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the manager whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x56d24c70350abb064275976da8debb7105f6f8ab084add8022c383280d3c16b5 yes 100