Will the Democratic Party win the NY-05 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely high Democratic probability at 94¢ with minimal recent trading ($0 in 24h volume), suggesting the price may be stale despite the tight 1¢ spread. The asymmetric implied yields—11.6% for Yes versus 2,849.9% for No—indicate severe illiquidity on the No side, with a Cliff Risk Index of 16 flagging potential sharp repricing if new information emerges before the November 2026 resolution. With 201 days to expiry and only $27k in open interest, this market lacks sufficient depth to reliably reflect true odds on what is presumably a safe Democratic district.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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