Will the Republican Party win the MI-03 House seat?

This MI-03 market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1.28M open interest, suggesting the $1.28M may represent stale positions rather than active trading. The 17¢ price implies only a 17% Republican win probability, yet the Yes-side implied yield of 497% and realized volatility of 3,269% indicate severe mispricing or highly uncertain fundamentals—the 7-day price movement from 17¢ to 27¢ (59% swing) reinforces this instability. With 199 days to expiry and a wide 13¢ bid-ask spread, this market lacks the depth to trust current pricing; the extremely high vol ratio (10.33) and info arrival rate (2.7/h) suggest significant unresolved information about the race.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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