Will the Republican Party win the KY-02 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely high Republican win probability of 92%, reflecting Kentucky's 2nd district's strong GOP lean, though the zero 24-hour volume and modest $22k open interest suggest thin liquidity for a contract expiring in 201 days. The asymmetric implied yields—15.8% for Yes versus an extreme 2092% for No—indicate severe mispricing on the Democratic side, where a $100 bet would theoretically return $2,192, creating potential arbitrage opportunities if Democratic chances are underestimated. The elevated Cliff Risk Index of 12 and neutral regime score warrant caution, as unexpected political shifts or candidate quality differences could challenge the current consensus before the November 2026 resolution.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade