Will Konnor Griffin win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?

Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will Konnor Griffin win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Polymarket, closing December 19, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $2,123.73 open interest, making the 19¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading.

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12¢
Bid/Ask 4/20¢·Spread 16¢·Vol $0·OI $2,023.749·Closes Dec 19, 2026·241d remaining
0x5b30185cd8393093f1c792c425587ad10b3d595983a23bd3599c82557c34a16d
7-day price482 snapshots · 4 regime
38¢12¢ current
Apr 1211¢Apr 21

Analysis

5d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $2,123.73 open interest, making the 19¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading. The 776.5% implied yield on the yes side and massive 5,722% realized volatility suggest wild price swings driven by minimal trading activity rather than fundamental shifts in Griffin's rookie prospects. The price has dropped sharply from 26¢ to 19¢ over seven days, but with such thin liquidity and a 17¢ bid-ask spread, this movement may reflect a single large trade rather than genuine market consensus about Griffin's 2026 ROY chances.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 National League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1110.8%
IY (No) 20.7%
Adj IY 555%
CRI 7
Overround 1.3%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)1110.8%
IY (No)20.7%
Adj IY555%
CRI7
Overround1.3%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
16¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 1:01:10 AM
Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 12:53:18 AM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x5b30185cd8393093f1c792c425587ad10b3d595983a23bd3599c82557c34a16d yes 100

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