Will Donald Trump visit Belarus in 2026?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $5.3M open interest, suggesting the $0.15 price may not reflect true consensus given the massive 743% implied yield on the Yes side. The 4-cent spread and neutral regime score indicate genuine uncertainty, though the 627% realized volatility and high cliff risk (5/10) suggest this is a speculative position rather than a liquid pricing mechanism. With 258 days to expiration, the market has ample time for information arrival (0.7/hour), but the lack of trading activity means this price should be treated as indicative rather than definitive.

Resolution rules

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits a listed country between January 1 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, the relevant market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade