Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?

The market prices a 7% invasion probability with exceptionally asymmetric payoffs—a "Yes" position offers 2,909% annualized yield versus just 16.5% for "No"—reflecting extreme tail-risk pricing typical of low-probability geopolitical events. Volume of $2.3M against $227M open interest suggests moderate liquidity for the contract size, though the tight 1¢ spread indicates reasonable two-sided market depth. The price declined 1¢ over seven days and the neutral regime score (0.341) suggest market participants view near-term invasion risk as stable and remote, with the high cliff risk index (13) flagging potential for sharp repricing if geopolitical conditions deteriorate.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade