Will Shelley Moore Capito be the Republican nominee for Senate in West Virginia?

0x5ed6999ab4f78c560c819c4ce2e4c6c88d8e1dc2dd0f96dae9de06af8daf86e6 · closes May 12, 2026 · 27 days remaining

Price

Last

96¢

Bid

94¢

Ask

97¢

Spread

3¢

24h Volume

$29.202

Open Interest

$9,784.027

Indicator Stack

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	56.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side
IY (No)	32426.4%	Annualized return on the NO side
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution
EE	—	Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes
Overround	—	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.03	Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500
CVR	—	Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron
RV	—	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history
VR	—	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	—	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window)
Adj IY	15706%	Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS)
Residual VR	—	VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't

7-Day History

4 indicator snapshots · 3 regime snapshots

Regime Snapshot

Score

0.409

Label

neutral

Spread

3¢

Computed

4/14/2026, 11:48:04 PM

About this market

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from West Virginia. If no 2026 West Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the West Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

How to trade

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Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0x5ed6999ab4f78c560c819c4ce2e4c6c88d8e1dc2dd0f96dae9de06af8daf86e6 yes 100