Will the Bank of Israel increase the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?

This market is pricing an extremely unlikely rate increase at just 3¢ with a massive 30,485% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either deep mispricing or structural issues given the Bank of Israel's recent easing cycle. The 4¢ spread and modest $286k 24h volume relative to $2.1m open interest indicate low liquidity that could exacerbate price distortions, while the extraordinarily high realized volatility of 3,849% and cliff risk index of 32 signal this contract has experienced severe price swings despite remaining flat at 3¢ over seven days. With 39 days to the May 2026 decision and an info arrival rate of 2.0/hour, the market appears to be pricing in near-zero probability of tightening, which warrants scrutiny against actual BoI policy signals.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the change in the Bank of Israel Interest Rate resulting from the Bank of Israel’s May monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Israel after its May 25, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Bank of Israel interest rate decision schedule: https://www.boi.org.il/en/economic-roles/monetary-policy/interest-rate-announcement-dates-2025-2026/# This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Israel's announcement of their May 25, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the Bank of Israel Interest Rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Indicators

Regime

Trade