No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
0x62b71e5e61067bc382f67779e8135ee4512acbab9ddb4a44917dc7d9f93e607a · closes Apr 28, 2026 · 13 days remaining
Price
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 540.7% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 14902.0% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 5 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | — | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.04 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 400% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 1.48 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 2.9/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 14370% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
223 indicator snapshots · 32 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting. If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
How to trade
View on polymarket: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0x62b71e5e61067bc382f67779e8135ee4512acbab9ddb4a44917dc7d9f93e607a yes 100