Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $77-$84 in June?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 2796% annualized yield on the "Yes" side despite a $77-$84 range representing a reasonable 8.4% band around current crude prices, suggesting the 15¢ price significantly undervalues the probability of settlement within this bracket. The sharp 82% price decline over seven days (27¢ to 15¢) combined with very low 24-hour volume of $63.23 and a high 549% realized volatility indicate illiquidity and potential panic selling rather than fundamental repricing. With 74 days to expiry and a neutral market regime, the extreme yield and cliff risk index of 6 warrant caution about execution risk, though the wide resolution range and long timeframe typically favor mean-reversion scenarios.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June. For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.

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