What will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in June?
Leader sits at 35% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 27%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
$70-$77
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
27¢
$77-$84
Spread
8pp
contested
24h volume
$3K
modest
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
12 days
Venue
Polymarket
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in June
What will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in June?: $77-$84
0x684c23…06be
What will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in June?: $70-$77
0xc6e334…e809
What will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in June?: >$84
0x34a4d2…0b67
What will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in June?: $63-$70
0x1235c3…e6bd
What will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in June?: $56-$63
0x4de2b4…35d9
Analysis
Traders are pricing a 65% probability that West Texas Intermediate crude will settle between $77–$84 per barrel by the end of June 2026. This forecast sits near current spot levels and reflects uncertainty about near-term demand, geopolitical supply shocks, and Federal Reserve policy. The market shows low conviction for extreme moves: contracts betting on oil hitting $200, $175, or $150 trade at only 4–12 cents, while a bet on prices staying above $80 commands 50 cents. Upward pressure would likely come from production disruptions or unexpected demand strength in Asia; downward pressure from recession signals or a sharp rise in U.S. inventory. Key drivers include OPEC production cuts, U.S. inventory data releases each week, and macroeconomic indicators through June.
- ›OPEC+ compliance with production quotas and any announced supply adjustments; current cuts average ~2 million barrels per day
- ›Weekly U.S. EIA crude inventory reports and refineryutilization rates, released each Wednesday, which directly signal domestic demand
- ›Current WTI spot price approximately $75–78 (as of early May 2026) relative to the $77–84 range; mean reversion or momentum would shift probabilities
- ›Geopolitical events or sanctions affecting major producers (Russia, Iran, Iraq) that could constrain global supply unexpectedly
- ›Macroeconomic data (PMI, GDP growth forecasts, Fed rate guidance) that influence expectations for fuel consumption through Q2 2026
What moved the line
- Jun 15>$84↓24pp48→24¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 12>$84↓14pp70→56¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 15$70-$77↑13pp11→24¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 16$77-$84↓8pp38→30¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 14>$84↓8pp56→48¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in oil
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- OPEC Crude Oil production above __ in May?: 20 Millionlast 30% · 6d
- Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by June 5?: 375Mlast 3% · 7d
- Will the brent crude oil close price be above 85.99 USD/Bbl on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDTabove $91.99last 97% · 13d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Bearish Oil Bets Surge as Iran Optimism Grows
The probability of crude oil (WTI) falling below $75 by end of June has skyrocketed 47 points to 89¢, with a 37% chance of hitting below $70. This is a direct response to the increased optimism around an Iran nuclear deal, which could bring significant Iranian oil supply back to the market.
Oil Traders Pivot to Bearish as Geopolitical Risk Premium Erodes
As the US-Iran peace deal narrative strengthens, oil markets are repricing lower. The probability of crude oil falling below $80 by end of June surged 17¢ to 81¢, while expectations for a rally above $120 collapsed. The VIX fell 4.41%, confirming a broader 'risk-on' shift that typically accompanies a reduction in geopolitical tensions.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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