What will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in June?
Leader sits at 35% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 27%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
$70-$77
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
27¢
$77-$84
Spread
8pp
contested
24h volume
$3K
modest
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
11 days
Venue
Polymarket
5 bound
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in June
What will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in June?: $77-$84
0x684c23…06be
What will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in June?: $70-$77
0xc6e334…e809
What will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in June?: >$84
0x34a4d2…0b67
What will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in June?: $63-$70
0x1235c3…e6bd
What will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in June?: $56-$63
0x4de2b4…35d9
Analysis
Traders are pricing a 65% probability that West Texas Intermediate crude will settle between $77–$84 per barrel by the end of June 2026. This forecast sits near current spot levels and reflects uncertainty about near-term demand, geopolitical supply shocks, and Federal Reserve policy. The market shows low conviction for extreme moves: contracts betting on oil hitting $200, $175, or $150 trade at only 4–12 cents, while a bet on prices staying above $80 commands 50 cents. Upward pressure would likely come from production disruptions or unexpected demand strength in Asia; downward pressure from recession signals or a sharp rise in U.S. inventory. Key drivers include OPEC production cuts, U.S. inventory data releases each week, and macroeconomic indicators through June.
- ›OPEC+ compliance with production quotas and any announced supply adjustments; current cuts average ~2 million barrels per day
- ›Weekly U.S. EIA crude inventory reports and refineryutilization rates, released each Wednesday, which directly signal domestic demand
- ›Current WTI spot price approximately $75–78 (as of early May 2026) relative to the $77–84 range; mean reversion or momentum would shift probabilities
- ›Geopolitical events or sanctions affecting major producers (Russia, Iran, Iraq) that could constrain global supply unexpectedly
- ›Macroeconomic data (PMI, GDP growth forecasts, Fed rate guidance) that influence expectations for fuel consumption through Q2 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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