Will Sal Stewart win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a wide 30¢ spread and modest $1,346 open interest, suggesting very thin trading activity and potentially stale pricing. The 255% implied yield on the "Yes" side is notably elevated relative to the 88% yield on "No," indicating either significant underpricing of Stewart's chances or a risk premium for low liquidity and the 244-day time horizon. The extraordinarily high realized volatility (2386%) and vol ratio (15.92) suggest this market has experienced dramatic price swings, though the recent 7-day movement of 34¢ to 37¢ is relatively modest, warranting caution about relying on this price as a reliable probability estimate given the illiquid conditions.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 National League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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