Will US GDP growth in 2026 be less than 0.5%?
0x6ae072980c3a34f776b1bb0d252cff1222ebf223866c1097937d1c5b46274dca · closes Jan 29, 2027 · 289 days remaining
Price
Cross-venue · kalshi
Same outcome trades on GDP growth in 2026? · match confidence 0.92 · close-time delta 733h
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 1278.5% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 12.5% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 10 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | -0.0% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | — | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | — | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | — | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 639% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
14 indicator snapshots · 3 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
How to trade
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Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0x6ae072980c3a34f776b1bb0d252cff1222ebf223866c1097937d1c5b46274dca yes 100