Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

This market shows extreme volatility (1002% realized vol) with the price surging 21 percentage points over 7 days to reach 50-50 odds, suggesting recent geopolitical developments have dramatically shifted sentiment toward a negotiated agreement. The exceptionally high implied yield (488%) combined with tight 1¢ spreads and moderate $14k daily volume indicates traders are pricing in substantial tail risk despite the balanced probability, likely reflecting uncertainty around Iran's willingness to comply and the political feasibility of such an agreement within 75 days. The 2.9 info arrivals per hour and neutral regime suggest this market remains highly sensitive to breaking news on nuclear negotiations.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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