Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026?

The 28¢ Polymarket price implies only a 28% probability Solana reaches $160 by end-2026, yet the Yes position offers an exceptional 385% risk-adjusted implied yield—suggesting either significant underpricing relative to Kalshi's 31¢ or that traders are heavily discounting tail risk despite SOL's 495% realized volatility. The 3-point Cliff Risk Index and 2.71 volatility ratio indicate substantial uncertainty around the resolution mechanics, while the modest $45k daily volume and 5¢ spread on $11.9M open interest suggest limited liquidity that could amplify price movements if new information arrives at the current 0.7 events per hour rate.

Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Solana (SOL/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:30 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the SOL/USDT “High” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance SOL/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

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