Will Ted Cruz be confirmed to be the sender of the “I beat Bush” email to Epstein in 2026?

Prediction markets currently give a 24% probability that Will Ted Cruz be confirmed to be the sender of the “I beat Bush” email to Epstein in 2026?. This contract trades at 24¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.

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24¢
Bid/Ask 1/46¢·Spread 45¢·Vol $0·OI $220.804·Closes Dec 31, 2026·245d remaining
0x715b8f64d8699481108970c545b80adf6d57b4024a730dccd64efbc0c6f5c402
7-day price200 snapshots · 2 regime
50¢23¢ current
Apr 80¢Apr 30

Resolution rules

On February 12, 2026, Rep. Ro Khanna posted a document on X that displays an email with the subject line "I beat Bush" addressed to Jeffrey Epstein, calling for the sender’s identity to be unredacted. You can read more about that here: https://x.com/reprokhanna/status/2022046192478327156 This market will resolve to the individual whose email account is confirmed to have sent the specified message by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no individual's email account is confirmed to have sent the message by the end date, this market will resolve to "Not revealed in 2026". The identity of the account must be revealed unambiguously, for example, through a public unredaction of the document in question, which clearly and definitively reveals the sender’s address. Official statements regarding the sender’s identity, or any confirmation that does not involve public unredaction of the specified document, including access limited to House members, congressional committees, or other restricted parties, will qualify only if there is a broad consensus as to their truthfulness. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 499.0%
IY (No) 44.5%
Adj IY 249%
CRI 3
Overround 1.3%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)499.0%
IY (No)44.5%
Adj IY249%
CRI3
Overround1.3%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
45¢
Computed
4/30/2026, 2:24:33 AM
Indicators computed 4/30/2026, 2:23:54 AM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x715b8f64d8699481108970c545b80adf6d57b4024a730dccd64efbc0c6f5c402 yes 100

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