Will the Bitcoin realized volatility index hit 80 by April 30?

This market has collapsed from 43¢ to 5¢ over seven days, pricing in only a 5% chance that Bitcoin's 30-day realized volatility reaches 80 by April 30, 2026—despite the current realized volatility sitting at 6,310%, suggesting extreme recent price swings. The 47,135% implied yield on the "Yes" side reflects the massive mispricing opportunity if volatility normalizes even modestly, though the thin $54.96 daily volume and wide 4¢ spread indicate severe illiquidity that could trap positions. With 15 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 19, this appears to be a tail-risk bet where the market may be underpricing mean reversion given the extraordinary current volatility regime.

Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Polylayer data point for the BTC-CRVIX 30 Day Index between the creation of this market and 23:59 ET on the date specified in the title has a value equal to or greater than the value specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Polylayer, specifically the BTC-CRVIX 30 Day Index values available at https://polylayer.xyz/crvix/btc, with the chart settings on "7D". A data point is considered finalized once the next data point is published. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the data from the BTC-CRVIX 30 Day Index chart. Values from other exchanges or different indexes will not be considered for the resolution of this market. For reference, the methodology can be found at: https://polylayer.xyz/crvix

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