Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
0x741bb46008b72234857c5118c8365ab3c2f69dbf28b30b59de04f173b8a778de · closes Nov 3, 2026 · 202 days remaining
Price
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 350.7% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 93.1% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 2 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | — | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.06 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 258% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 1.25 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 0.4/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 330% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
40 indicator snapshots · 3 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
How to trade
View on polymarket: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0x741bb46008b72234857c5118c8365ab3c2f69dbf28b30b59de04f173b8a778de yes 100