Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

This market is pricing an extremely unlikely scenario—a pause followed by two consecutive cuts across April, June, and July FOMC meetings—at just 3¢, implying an 11,375% annualized yield for "Yes" positions despite near-zero liquidity ($5.43 in 24h volume). The massive spread between implied yields (11,375% vs. 10.9%) and extreme realized volatility of 2,972% suggest this is a highly illiquid tail-risk contract where the 3¢ price may not reflect true market consensus but rather sparse trading activity. With 104 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 32, the market faces significant event risk from upcoming FOMC decisions, making the current pricing potentially exploitable for informed traders but dangerous for those unfamiliar with illiquid prediction markets.

Resolution rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

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