Will Michael Hummert be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Montana?
Prediction markets currently give a 2% probability that Will Michael Hummert be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Montana?. This contract trades at 2¢ on Polymarket, closing June 2, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $8,164 in open interest, and the 6¢ spread indicates significant pricing uncertainty around a 5¢ position.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $8,164 in open interest, and the 6¢ spread indicates significant pricing uncertainty around a 5¢ position. The astronomical 15,085% implied yield on the "Yes" side combined with 1,746% realized volatility and a Cliff Risk Index of 19 suggests this is a highly speculative tail-risk bet with minimal conviction, likely reflecting either a data error or an extremely niche candidate with virtually no mainstream support. With 46 days to the June 2026 close and only 0.6 information arrivals per hour, the market appears dormant and illiquid, making any price discovery unreliable.
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Montana. If no 2026 Montana Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Montana Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x7513824347f82d50e4007c6b3c86551fd858a6d4054143dadd9c5c0f6c38c653 yes 100