Will Michael Hummert be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Montana?
Prediction markets currently give a 2% probability that Will Michael Hummert be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Montana?. This contract trades at 2¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a massive 4365% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 2¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather thin order book dynamics.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a massive 4365% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 2¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather thin order book dynamics. The recent price movement from 2¢ to 4¢ over seven days, combined with a 5270% realized volatility and 24 cliff risk index, indicates high uncertainty and potential for sharp repricing as the November 2026 nomination approaches. With only $575 in open interest and a 1¢ spread, this contract lacks sufficient depth for reliable price discovery on a relatively unknown candidate.
Also on polymarket at —¢
Resolution rules
If Michael Hummert wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Senate Montana Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Regime
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sf trade KXSENATEMTD-26-MHUM yes 100