Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Netanyahu's odds have ticked up 3 cents over the past week to 44¢, reflecting modest bullish sentiment ahead of Israel's October 2026 elections, though the 180% implied yield on the Yes side suggests meaningful uncertainty about his political viability. The market shows healthy liquidity with $881k in 24-hour volume and a tight 1¢ spread, but the relatively modest $41.6k open interest indicates this isn't a heavily-backed position despite the high yield opportunity. With 258 days to resolution and a neutral regime score of 0.409, the market appears fairly priced with no obvious cross-venue arbitrage signals, though the asymmetric yields (180% Yes vs. 111% No) suggest traders are pricing in significant tail risks around coalition-building dynamics post-election.

Resolution rules

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade