Will Mexico GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than 0.0%?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 7¢ price implying only 7% odds of negative Mexican GDP growth in Q1 2026, yet the Yes position offers a staggering 35,497% implied yield—a red flag suggesting severe illiquidity and potential manipulation given the minuscule $6.2 daily volume against $218.9k open interest. The price has collapsed 53% over seven days (from 15¢ to 7¢) with a 9¢ spread and 3,134% realized volatility, indicating this thin market may not reflect genuine probability but rather a liquidity trap where large positions can distort pricing dramatically. With only 14 days to resolution and a Cliff Risk Index of 13, the extreme yield and volatility suggest traders should treat this as a highly speculative, potentially illiquid position rather than a reliable probability estimate.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Regime

Trade