Will the Republican Party win the NH-01 House seat?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 14% Republican probability despite NH-01 being a historically competitive district, generating an implausible 1115.6% annualized yield on the Yes side. The $0 24-hour volume combined with $12.5M open interest and a tight 1¢ spread suggests illiquidity and potential stale pricing rather than genuine market consensus. With 201 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, this appears to be a low-conviction market where the price may not reflect fundamental political fundamentals, presenting possible arbitrage opportunities for informed traders.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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