What is the current probability for "Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 6¢ (6% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on May 31, 2026. 39 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 14676.3% and 59.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Polymarket, closing May 31, 2026.

██░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░

6¢

Bid/Ask 5/6¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $116.62·OI $26,675.726·Closes May 31, 2026·39d remaining

0x791f879219f18977b17076657b4d9952c1961e525039019155563f6b6d85bd68

7-day price24 snapshots · 20 regime

6¢6¢ current

Apr 85¢Apr 19

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes". If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 14676.3%

IY (No) 59.8%

Adj IY 7338%

CRI 16

▶ Full indicator table (4)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	14676.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	59.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	7338%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	16	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 12:55:29 AM

Observability lowEvent type political

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 12:53:18 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x791f879219f18977b17076657b4d9952c1961e525039019155563f6b6d85bd68 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

Related Prediction Market Questions