Will Garrett Crochet win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?

Crochet's odds have roughly doubled over the past week (11¢ to 24¢), though the current 13¢ price suggests recent pullback, creating a notable 14¢ spread that reflects uncertainty. The extreme 527% implied yield on the Yes side paired with massive 5146% realized volatility and a 13.23 vol ratio indicates this is a highly speculative micro-cap position with only $7.3M open interest and minimal $10 daily volume, making it illiquid and prone to sharp repricing. With 208 days to expiry and an info arrival rate of 1.8 events per hour, the market appears to be pricing in significant injury or performance risk for the young pitcher, though the recent price spike suggests some contrarian positioning.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Cy Young Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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