Will US annex any territory in 2026?

This market prices US territorial annexation at just 12¢ despite offering a striking 1,037% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either genuine skepticism about near-term annexation or significant tail-risk underpricing. The 7-day downtrend from 14¢ to 12¢ combined with modest $263.64 daily volume and $18.5M open interest indicates thin liquidity that could amplify price swings if geopolitical tensions spike. With 258 days to resolution and a neutral regime score, the high cliff risk index (7) warrants caution—this contract could experience sharp repricing if any credible annexation rhetoric emerges from official US sources.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially annexes any territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the US government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation. Qualifying examples of annexation include the Louisiana Purchase, however instances where settlers claim administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade