Will Apple (AAPL) close above $300 end of April?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $994.35 open interest, making the 10¢ price potentially unreliable despite the 29,027% implied yield on the Yes side. With AAPL needing to rally roughly 15% from current levels in just 11 days and realized volatility at 4,060%, the market appears to be pricing in tail-risk scenarios, though the wide 15¢ spread and high cliff risk index (9/10) suggest significant uncertainty about resolution mechanics. The price doubling from 5¢ to 10¢ over seven days combined with near-zero liquidity raises questions about whether this reflects genuine probability reassessment or merely thin-market price discovery.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Apple (AAPL) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Apple (AAPL) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

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