Will União Brasil (UNIÃO) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?

União Brasil is priced at an extremely depressed 4¢ with zero 24-hour volume despite $3M in open interest, suggesting this is a stale or illiquid position with potential mispricing. The astronomical 6914% implied yield on the Yes side combined with a 32 Cliff Risk Index indicates extreme tail risk and likely reflects a handful of old positions rather than active market consensus. With 171 days to the October 2026 election and near-zero recent trading activity, this market lacks the liquidity needed to trust its price signal on whether União Brasil can realistically capture the most Senate seats against established parties like MDB and PSD.

Resolution rules

The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election. Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

Indicators

Regime

Trade