U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027?
0x81e8f9fd1c08c597b716ea800a97c6d04d60c985a2c388bc6d77a0f85e643df8 · closes Dec 31, 2026 · 260 days remaining
Price
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 498.3% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 39.6% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 4 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 2.2% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 2207% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 9.46 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 6.3/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 498% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
836 indicator snapshots · 2 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
How to trade
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