Will 51 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $868k open interest, and the 54¢ spread indicates significant pricing uncertainty around whether a Trump Fed Chair nominee clears the 51-vote threshold. The 346% implied yield on the "Yes" side combined with 920% realized volatility suggests the market has experienced sharp price swings, though the recent 7-day decline from 31¢ to 28¢ hints at growing skepticism about confirmation odds. With 258 days to resolution and a neutral regime, this appears to be a speculative position with minimal recent trading activity rather than an actively discovered price.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions. If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market. The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.

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