Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Prediction markets currently give a 27% probability that Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?. This contract trades at 27¢ on Polymarket, closing June 27, 2026. Colombia's 29¢ price reflects a modest 29% win probability for Group K, but the market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1258% implied yield for Yes positions versus 210% for No, suggesting significant underpricing risk or heavy short positioning.
Analysis
Colombia's 29¢ price reflects a modest 29% win probability for Group K, but the market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1258% implied yield for Yes positions versus 210% for No, suggesting significant underpricing risk or heavy short positioning. The 366% realized volatility and minimal 24-hour volume of $47.11 against $4.7M open interest indicate thin liquidity that could amplify price swings as the June 27 resolution date approaches, particularly if Colombia performs well in qualifying or group stage warmups. The neutral regime and low information arrival rate (0.3/h) suggest this market may be undermonitored relative to its extreme yield differential, presenting potential value but with execution risk given the illiquidity.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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sf trade 0x881c23cb7b27ca775bfc550550ee94e6dc980a1b4dff7ca7f6f5f24e95bff060 yes 100