Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Primary?
0x885af440160b32c882027f0ed610b6a9b311262a6a0518fa9529a050f078fad2 · closes Nov 3, 2026 · 202 days remaining
Price
Last
96¢
Bid
95¢
Ask
96¢
Spread
1¢
24h Volume
$21
Open Interest
$11,922.486
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 7.5% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 4336.3% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 24 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 0.1% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.01 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | — | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | — | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | — | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 2146% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
10 indicator snapshots · 3 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.5
Label
neutral
Spread
1¢
Computed
4/14/2026, 11:49:45 PM
About this market
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Representative from New York’s 8th Congressional District. If no 2026 New York 8th District Democratic House Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New York Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
How to trade
View on polymarket: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0x885af440160b32c882027f0ed610b6a9b311262a6a0518fa9529a050f078fad2 yes 100