Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 0.5% and 1.0%?

This market displays extreme mispricing with a 5¢ price implying only a 5% probability of modest 0.5-1.0% GDP growth in 2026, yet the Yes position offers a staggering 2417% implied yield—suggesting either severe illiquidity or market dysfunction given the $0 24-hour volume despite $2.8M open interest. The 3¢ spread is notably wide relative to the price, and the recent price decline from 6¢ to 5¢ combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 19 indicates potential volatility or thin order books near resolution. With 287 days to expiry and resolution tied to the BEA's Q4 2026 advance estimate, this appears to be a low-liquidity tail-risk bet where the extreme yield reflects difficulty in finding counterparties rather than genuine market consensus that sub-1% growth is unlikely.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Indicators

Regime

Trade